The main purpose of the index is to assess the dynamics of prices for consumer goods. The resolution of the International Labor Organization (ILO) states that “the purpose of calculating the CPI is to assess changes over time in the general level of prices for goods and services purchased, used or paid for by the population for non-productive consumption”*.

The CPI system calculated in Russia includes:

consolidated CPI, which characterizes the change in the cost of a fixed (basic) complete set of consumer goods and services purchased on average per family (according to the structure of family consumption according to budget surveys);

CPI for certain socio-economic groups of the population, characterizing changes in the cost of fixed sets of consumer goods and services purchased by population groups with different income levels. For each population group (for example, pensioners), group price indices can be calculated;

cost of living index, characterizing the change in the cost of a fixed set of consumer goods and services corresponding to the minimum consumer budget;

CPI, calculated for a set of 25 products;

summary price indices in general for groups of food, non-food goods and services, as well as CPI for the region, economic region.

Whatever the purpose of the indices, international recommendations are based on the principle of the appropriateness of calculating the index for the entire range of consumed goods without any exceptions for tobacco or other goods regarded as optional or undesirable.

The basis for calculating the CPI are individual indices of retail prices for consumer goods and tariffs for paid services to the population, calculated on the basis of weekly and monthly registration of prices and tariffs for a set of representative goods (services).

CPI calculation is carried out:

to the previous month (or period);

by December of the previous year (or quarter);

to the corresponding month (or period) of the previous year, for example, January 1999 to January 1998.

The information base for calculating price and tariff indices is data from shops, markets, stalls, street trading, service enterprises, i.e. registration of prices and tariffs is carried out at the time and place of sale of goods and services.

The most important question is whether the index will cover all or part of the country's regions. On the one hand, developing an index based on price records covering only part of the country may be cheaper; on the other hand, some index users need the index to cover the entire country. In practice, the index is calculated quite widely using data only on urban settlements. This is because registering prices in rural areas is very difficult and very expensive. At the same time, the dynamics of prices in rural areas is almost similar to the dynamics of prices in the city.

It is impossible and impractical to register prices in every locality and every retail outlet, of all goods and services, therefore a sample of localities, retail outlets, and representative goods is necessary, which should be carried out in stages. First, it is necessary to select settlements where it is planned to monitor the dynamics of prices and tariffs.

Observation is carried out on the territory of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Price information is collected in all capitals of republics, territories, regions, autonomous districts and selectively in regional centers, selected taking into account their representativeness in reflecting the socio-economic and geographical position of the regions and the degree of saturation of the consumer market with goods and services.

Surveillance is carried out at trade and service enterprises of all types of ownership and forms of trade organization, as well as in places where goods are sold and services are provided to individuals. Large, medium and small trade enterprises and service organizations located both in the central part of the city and on its outskirts are selected for registration. When selecting trading enterprises, data from the tax office is used. To select basic trade and service enterprises, carried out by local government statistics bodies, the main array method is used.

The set of goods and services developed for weekly price monitoring includes representative goods and services of mass consumer demand, as well as individual goods and services of optional use (passenger cars, gold jewelry). The set consists of three large groups: food products (100), non-food products (201) and paid services (81 items) - a total of 382 goods and services.

Each group is represented by specific goods (services) or small product subgroups. As new types of paid services appear or free services move into the paid category (education, healthcare services, etc.), new items are included in the set for calculating the CPI.

Monthly registration of prices and goods on the consumer market is carried out in the capitals of the republics within Russia, territories and regions for 559 goods with specific consumer properties. The list of goods with specific consumer properties includes 200 items for food products and 359 for non-food products.

Lists of objects for monthly registration of prices (for 382 representative goods) and monthly monitoring of goods with specific consumer properties must be interconnected. To calculate indices by region, prices for 49 representative goods (services) are recorded weekly in regional centers. At the same time, the actual price of goods available for free sale is registered, including VAT and excise taxes." Price registration is carried out weekly on Mondays. Goods and services, prices (tariffs) for which are not subject to sudden changes, are registered on Friday of the previous week.

Procedure for calculating the CPI

The CPI is calculated in several stages. First, individual price indices of goods (services) for the city are determined as quotients by dividing average prices:

In turn, the average prices of the reporting and base periods р̅ 1 and р̅ 0 for each registered product are calculated using the simple arithmetic average formula, i.e., as the sum of registered prices at different points divided by the number of registered prices.

Where n- number of registered prices.

On the basis of individual price indices for the territories participating in the observation, aggregate price indices of individual goods, product groups and services are determined for the entire region and the Russian Federation. The share of the population at the beginning of the current year of the surveyed territory in the total population of the Russian Federation is used as the territorial weight. It should be noted that it would be advisable to take the share of sales of the relevant goods in the total sales volume as territorial weights, but since such data is not available at the district or city level, and in order to simplify calculations, the share of the population of each selected region can be taken as territorial weights .

Based on aggregate indices for goods and services in general (or groups of goods and services) and the share of expenses for their purchase in consumer expenditures of the population, aggregate price indices are determined in general for groups of consumer goods and services, as well as CPI for the region, economic region, Russian Federation as a whole.

The Laspeyres formula is used as a formula for calculating the CPI:

where I p is the price index of the i-th period compared to the base period;

p j 0 , p j 1 - the price of the i-th product or service, respectively, in basic and t- period.

Consumer expenditures obtained as a result of household surveys are used as weights in calculating the CPI. To clarify the share of individual items in the consumer mix, information on the structure of retail turnover, expert assessments and other sources are also used.

In a stable economy, changes in the structure of consumer spending occur relatively slowly. Under these conditions, the weights used to calculate the CPI change on average once every 4-5 years. Then you can use the following calculation formula:

Where djf- weights fixed at some f-th level.

In this case, the prices of the current period are compared with the prices of any other period, and not just with the prices of the year in which the consumer expenditure survey was conducted.

Currently, due to the fact that in Russia, in an unstable economy, the structure of consumer spending changes significantly from year to year, the method of adjusting average annual weights is used, which makes it possible to bring the weights of the basic consumer basket as close as possible to the conditions of the current period.

The dynamics of price indices in Russia are presented in table. 14.3.

Table 14.3

Price indices*

(December to December of the previous year; in times)

The consumer price index is the main inflation indicator that measures changes in the cost of goods and services in the consumer basket that are in constant demand. Usually it is built on the basis of an already selected consumer basket. Selecting its composition is a rather complex task, which is based on special statistical studies, since it must reflect the composition of consumed goods typical for a given country. Changes in prices for these particular goods should objectively demonstrate the direction of the economic processes that are taking place here.

Statistics in the US cover 19 thousand retail firms, as well as 57 thousand households - all this is a representative sample of 80% of the country's population. The consumer basket includes 55.9% of services and 44.1% of goods. The consumer price index is designed to characterize inflationary pressure in a country, having very important economic significance.

Implications for the Forex market

In this market, the consumer price index is a fairly significant indicator that has a great influence; it is by it that market participants determine or try to predict the upcoming value of inflation, since it is the main one for the country.

The above-described consumer basket includes food, expenses for transport, education, healthcare, recreation, clothing, etc. It is important to understand that each country has its own, which is formed depending on statistical studies, as well as on the conditions of the state or region.

The consumer price index is used to determine what is very important for If the calculation does not take into account the industries that are considered the most variable, in particular, energy and food, then the index will be much more reliable.

How to react to the release of this indicator? There is a direct relationship here. If it is high, then economic development is considered good, and this will lead to higher interest rates, which will make the national currency very attractive to investors.

Relationship with other indicators

The consumer price growth index affects the assessment of parity in the long run by state, as well as monetary policy regarding established interest rates. Typically, the growth of this indicator causes a decrease in the level of demand and retail sales in the long term, and if we are talking about the short term, then the growth shows high consumer activity. The indicator is influenced by such indicators as prices of industrial goods, money supply, and import prices.

Features of the indicator behavior

The index includes goods and services, and the main differences between them lie in their composition. There are two rules for assessing inflation trends in these sectors. The most volatile is commodity sector inflation. There is a main reason for this, which is that commodity production is much more dependent on energy and food prices. These two components of the industry account for almost half of the commodity component, which is why the price changes here are stronger. Inflation in the services sector is less volatile, so it lags behind goods inflation. On average, the minimums and maximums of price growth for services lag behind price fluctuations in the commodity sector by six months.

If a price index is published, the market looks at the changes occurring every month in the general indicator that gives the highest percentage of inflation.

Inflation – is a sustained increase in the general level of prices for goods and services in the economy. The reverse process - a decrease in the general price level - is called deflation.

Consumer Price Index as an Inflation Indicator

Various price dynamics indicators– producer price indices, gross domestic product deflator, consumer price index. When people talk about inflation, they usually mean the consumer price index (CPI), which measures the change over time in the cost of a set of food, non-food goods and services consumed by the average household (i.e., the cost of the “consumer basket”). The choice of the CPI as the main indicator of inflation is associated with its role as an important indicator of the dynamics of the cost of living of the population. In addition, the CPI has a number of characteristics that make it convenient for widespread use - simplicity and clarity of the construction methodology, monthly calculation frequency, and prompt publication.

The periods over which the CPI is measured may vary. The most common comparisons are the level of consumer prices in a certain month of the year with their level in the previous month, the corresponding month of the previous year, December of the previous year.

Statistical monitoring of prices, the necessary calculations and publication of data on the CPI in Russia is carried out by the Federal State Statistics Service.

Features of the Russian consumer basket

In Russia, as in countries with emerging markets in general, a characteristic feature of the consumer basket is a fairly high share of food products in it (in 2014 - 36.5%). Their prices are quite variable. To a large extent, fluctuations in inflation in the food market are determined by changes in supply volumes, primarily by agricultural yields in our country and in the world, which significantly depend on weather conditions. Since the share of food products in the consumer basket is high, fluctuations in their prices can have a significant impact on inflation as a whole.

Another feature of the Russian consumer basket used to calculate the CPI is the presence of goods and services in it, the prices and tariffs of which are subject to administrative influence. Thus, the state regulates tariffs for a number of public utility services, passenger transport, communications, and some others. In addition, prices for tobacco products and alcoholic beverages significantly depend on excise tax rates.

Consumer demand is satisfied through goods and services of both domestic and foreign origin. There are no statistical data on the share of imports in the CPI, but the share of imports in the structure of retail trade commodity resources can give an idea of ​​it in terms of goods (in recent years - about 44%). The significant share of merchandise imports in the consumer basket determines the significant impact of changes in the ruble exchange rate on inflation.

Inflation factors

Prices may rise faster or slower. In the first case, they talk about an increase in inflation, in the second – about its decrease. There are various reasons for changes in inflation. Let's look at them using the example of accelerating price growth. If the level of demand for goods and services exceeds the ability of supply to satisfy it, they speak of a pro-inflationary effect demand side factors. In some cases, the rapid growth of demand may be affected by too accessible loans and accelerated growth of nominal incomes of economic entities. Often these sources of excess demand are called "monetary factors of inflation"- pressure on prices due to the creation of excess money.

Inflation can also rise when an imbalance in the market for a product or service arises due to insufficient offers, for example, due to crop failure, restrictions on the import of products from abroad, or the actions of a monopolist.

Inflation can be caused by growth costs for the production and sale of a unit of product - due to rising prices for raw materials, supplies, components, increased enterprise costs for wages, taxes, interest payments and other costs. Increasing costs can also lead to a decrease in production volumes and, further, to the formation of additional pro-inflationary pressure due to insufficient supply.

An increase in prices for imported cost components may be due to both an increase in world prices and a depreciation of the national currency. In addition, the weakening of the national currency can directly affect the prices of final products imported from abroad. The overall effect of a change in the exchange rate on price movements is called "carryover effect" and is often considered as a separate factor of inflation.

Economic theory identifies as a special factor inflation expectations– assumptions regarding the level of future inflation, formed by economic entities. The expected rate of inflation is taken into account by producers when making decisions regarding setting prices for their own products, wage rates, determining production volumes and investments. Households' inflation expectations influence their decisions about how much of the funds at their disposal to allocate to savings and how much to consumption. The decisions of economic actors affect the supply and demand of goods and services and, ultimately, inflation.

Negative consequences of high inflation

High inflation means a decrease in the purchasing power of the income of all economic entities, which negatively affects demand, economic growth, the standard of living of the population, and public sentiment. Depreciation of income reduces opportunities and undermines incentives to save, which prevents the formation of a stable financial basis for investment. In addition, high inflation is accompanied by increased uncertainty, which makes it difficult for economic actors to make decisions. All together, this negatively affects savings, consumption, production, investment and, in general, the conditions for sustainable economic development.

Benefits of Price Stability

Price stability means maintaining low growth rates in consumer prices, which economic actors neglect when making decisions. In conditions of low and predictable inflation, the population is not afraid to save in national currency for long periods, since they are confident that inflation will not depreciate their deposits. Long-term savings, in turn, are a source of financing investments. In conditions of price stability, banks are ready to provide resources to borrowers for long periods at relatively low rates. Thus, price stability creates conditions for increased investment and, ultimately, for sustainable economic development.

The consumer price index for goods and services (CPI) is one of the main indicators that characterize inflationary processes in the country. The CPI is used when recalculating macroeconomic indicators from current prices to comparable prices. This indicator is also used to characterize changes in consumer spending on goods and paid services in the current period compared to the previous (base) period under the influence of changes in prices for these goods and services in individual constituent entities of the Russian Federation and in the country as a whole. Based on the CPI, the value is calculated, in particular, per capita and for the main socio-demographic groups. Using CPI indicators, employers can make mandatory (Letter of Rostrud dated April 19, 2010 No. 1073-6-1, Constitutional Court Determination dated November 19, 2015 No. 2618-O).

Consumer Price Index: Formula

The CPI characterizes the change over time in the general level of prices for goods and services purchased by the population and is calculated as follows:

CPI = C 1 / C 0,

C 1 - the cost of a fixed list of goods and services in prices of the current period;

C 0 - the cost of a fixed list of goods and services in prices of the previous (base) period.

The set of goods and services on the basis of which the CPI is calculated is the same for all constituent entities of the Russian Federation and represents a selection of groups of goods and services most frequently consumed by the population developed by Rosstat. This set consists of food products, non-food products and services.

How often is the CPI determined?

The CPI is calculated monthly within the framework of the Federal Statistical Work Plan, approved by Government Order No. 671-r dated May 6, 2008. The methodology for calculating the CPI is established by Rosstat Order No. 734 dated December 30, 2014.

Information about approved CPIs is posted on the Internet on the official website of Rosstat gks.ru.

The value of the CPI in 2017 can be found on the website in the “Indices” section or in SPS ConsultantPlus.

Consumer price indices for 2018 will also be posted on the Rosstat website as such coefficients are approved; for January 2018, such coefficients will be available no earlier than February 2018.

Consumer Price Index (CPI - Consumer Price Index) - an indicator of rising prices for goods and services.

This is the most popular formula for determining inflation/deflation. The CPI is a weighted average of the prices of goods and services purchased by the average household.

When determining CPI, the so-called statistical shopping basket is taken into account. Its content is determined by the statistics department and approved at the state level.

The consumer price index is calculated using the formula:

Kr is the cost of the market basket for a certain year;

Kb is the value of the market basket at the time of calculation.

The Consumer Price Index is measured in almost every country, but the calculation methods differ. In poor countries, residents spend a significant portion of their income on food, and this has a significant impact on the CPI. On the contrary, in highly developed countries, differences in consumption patterns lead to the need to develop their own calculation scheme. For example, in the Japanese price index, fish is weighted more heavily, while in the French price index, wine consumption is weighted more heavily.

Composition of the CPI basket

The basket consists of various product groups, which cover about 400 items. It represents the shopping mix of a typical consumer. The list includes food, fuel, clothing, real estate, fees for medical and legal services, expenses for public transport, repairs, interest on loans, etc.

The consumer price index is very important for the economy. It appears as:

• inflation rate;
• a measure of the purchasing power of money;
• part of the formula when calculating wage indexation (cost of living adjustment);
• indicator for coordinating monetary and fiscal policies.

The price index for consumer goods and services is one of the most important indicators of fundamental (macroeconomic) analysis. In monetary policy, it is used by countries in which the central bank uses a direct inflation targeting strategy. There are also other indicators that determine price stability in the economy, for example, the gross product deflator. However, from the studies conducted it follows that the CPI more fully diagnoses inflation compared to other calculation methods.

Problems detecting changes in CPI

To more accurately calculate the CPI, the following factors should be taken into account when calculating:

• The emergence of new products. This means more choice for consumers. Greater variety of products increases the value of money. This means that people need less financial resources to maintain their current standard of living. However, the price index is based on a fixed basket of goods and services, so it does not reflect changes in the purchasing power of money.
• Substitution of goods. Product prices vary to varying degrees. Some decline more, others decrease, and others increase. Consumer demand due to such price elasticity may vary, as the buyer limits the purchase of goods that have become more expensive and increases the purchase of cheaper items. If the CPI is calculated for a fixed basket, it does not take into account the fact that consumers may buy substitute goods.
• No change in quality. Deterioration in the quality of goods leads to a fall in the purchasing power of money, even if the price of the product has not changed. Likewise, as a product improves, the cost of finance increases.

Another challenge in calculating the CPI is making comparisons over the long term. The problem stems from the fact that many goods and services present in the current basket did not exist in the past (for example, microwave ovens, mobile phones, etc.). Some product items (for example, computers) are included in the list, but the statistics do not take into account that the equipment currently produced is different from its previous generations, which may affect its cost. Also, the accuracy of calculations can be affected by the so-called inflation inequality - the difference in the share of individual goods and services in the structure of expenses of different social groups.