Professor of the Department of World Economy V.A. Gorbanev - about the situation around climate change.

The Paris Agreement is based on the well-known alarmist reports of the International Panel on Climate Change, which makes an unequivocal conclusion about global warming, and this warming is to blame for anthropogenic activities and, above all, energy.

Most Russian scientists do not share this one-sided approach. Indeed, many prominent scientists in Russia, but especially abroad, support this point of view, relying on mathematical models. However, there are also many scientists who do not support this point of view, but their opinion is not heard or does not want to be heard.

First, let's talk about the causes of climate change. If you look at the course of changes in atmospheric temperature since the Precambrian era, periods of cooling and warming are clearly visible. The reason for such fluctuations is difficult to explain. According to Russian scientists, the most likely reason is the variability of the climate system.

The influence of external factors is unlikely. For example, the impact of greenhouse gases could not be significant, because their concentration remained fairly stable, and fluctuations in carbon dioxide concentrations do not coincide with temperature fluctuations. During the interglacial period (110–140 thousand years ago) average temperature near the Earth’s surface was 2°C higher than the modern one, and the concentration of carbon dioxide is much lower, so the discrepancy between the modern relatively low temperature and the very high level carbon dioxide concentrations.

At the same time, internal variability in the climate system could well cause significant temperature fluctuations. In particular, a change in the regime of the ice sheet, which can either desalinate or, on the contrary, increase the salinity of sea waters, directly affects the change in the density of water masses. As a result, the geography and intensity of global water circulation in the World Ocean changes, which in turn has a powerful impact on the circulation and thermal regime of the atmosphere. Energy-active zones in the World Ocean, which were studied by G.I. Marchuk, have a similar effect. As Murmansk experts say, in last years Ice cover around the Kola Peninsula has increased, i.e. cooling is observed. It is known that cooling is also occurring in Antarctica. Those. climate change is happening, but
in which direction is still difficult to understand.

Now regarding the role of man in this change. Professor G.M. Kruchenitsky in his report “On the fundamental scientific inconsistency of the concept of anthropogenic global warming” spoke very simply: “Anthropogenic global warming is not an erroneous hypothesis. This is banter! The author emphasizes that climate models have three classes of difficulties, each of which would be enough to shut down all so-called “climate modeling” forever. All models use the Navier-Stokes equation in a rotating coordinate system. This equation, intended to describe fluid flow, also includes the phenomenon of turbulence when the Reynolds number is exceeded. And if there is turbulence, it means there is no single solution. And if there is no single solution, then numerical methods cannot be used. But they are the only ones used in climate modeling.

This reason for the wave is enough for the question of the reliability of model climate predictions not to be discussed.

Almost 20 years ago, a Russian geographer, corresponding member. RAS Andrei Kapitsa said that global warming does not exist, it is a myth. On the contrary, since 1975 there has been a slow cooling. The scientist called another myth the influence of man and his activities on climate change. The climate on our planet is changing regardless of our desire or unwillingness. Moreover, carbon dioxide emissions, which are considered the main cause of the “greenhouse effect,” are precisely a consequence of natural warming, which has now been replaced by an equally natural cycle of “cooling” the planet. This happens approximately according to the following scheme: the climate changes cyclically from ice ages to warming, but at the same time, when the World Ocean - the main repository of carbon dioxide - warms up even by half a degree, a powerful release into the atmosphere occurs. When the temperature changes towards minus, the concentration of carbon dioxide begins to decrease. In addition, its content is also affected by volcanic activity and forest fires. But not human industrial activity, Kapitsa concludes.

RAS scientists come to a final conclusion: the opinion of the RAS Presidium, expressed at the request of the President of Russia, about the complete absence of scientific justification for the anthropogenic origin of the observed climate changes, is convincingly confirmed at the level of elementary assessments!

This is about science. Now a few words about the Paris Agreement.

At the opening of the negotiations in Paris, Russian President V.V. Putin said that “regardless of the outcome of the international climate conference and even if it fails, Russia will still reduce harmful emissions to 70% of the 1990 baseline level by 2030.”

The Minister of Ecology of Russia noted that in terms of emissions, Russia is among the top four, but is far behind China, the USA, and India, which are the main “polluters” of the planet. However, as noted, we have not ratified the Agreement. We are going to do this in 2019. However, business called on V.V. Putin not to approve the document. The RSPP stated that the implementation of the provisions will negatively affect the rate of economic growth. The head of the Union, Alexander Shokhin, noted that Russia has already exceeded its obligation to bring emissions into the atmosphere below the 1990 level. The volume of greenhouse gas emissions in Russia decreased by 30% compared to 1990. And if we take into account the natural absorption capacity of Russian forests, then we can talk about a reduction in emissions over a quarter of a century by almost 46%.

The United States, as you know, withdrew from the Agreement. It, according to Trump, is beneficial to other countries, but not the United States, since it imposes a “draconian financial and economic burden” on the country. Fulfillment of the US commitments will lead to the loss of 2.7 million jobs by 2025, including 440 thousand jobs in industry. We, as I just said, have already fulfilled the terms of the Agreement. Therefore, Russia does not face such problems now. But we need to look forward: they are not worth it now, but in the future, when the economy grows at a faster rate, such problems will certainly arise.

Therefore, in conclusion, I would like to emphasize that from both scientific and practical points of view, the provisions of the Paris Agreement do not seem convincing enough, and, in our opinion, we need to wait for its ratification. First of all, it is necessary to direct the efforts of scientists to solve the problem: this moment is warming or cooling coming and what is the role of humans in this process. When these problems are resolved by the international scientific community in the form of a consensus, then it will be possible to create appropriate international mechanisms and make the necessary decisions.

Scientists have found that a new global cooling may begin on Earth in 10-15 years. ...According to preliminary forecasts, activity on the star will soon decrease sharply. In 10 years, global cooling will occur on Earth. Such forecasts were voiced by scientists from the UK as a result of their experiments modeling solar activity cycles. British scientists have found that global cooling on Earth may occur within 10 years. Experts from England's Northumbria University have found that global cooling will occur within 10-15 years.

climatologists: in 10 years the earth will be covered by global cold

European scientists have concluded that a “little ice age” on Earth is more likely than previously thought. A team of researchers has revealed scientific model, according to which a decrease in solar activity is expected.

A team of European researchers has revealed a scientific model that suggests the Earth may experience a "little ice age" as a result of declining solar activity, the Sunday Express reports. …From 1645 to 1715, global temperatures fell due to low solar activity, causing a 70-year “ice age.”

British climatologists tell the world that in 10-15 years the planet will experience another global cooling. ...After studying the cycles of the star, it was found that its activity will soon decrease.

Having analyzed the processes that are currently occurring on the Sun, British experts suggested that in 10 years global cooling may begin on Earth. ...In turn, a decrease in solar activity will lead to global cooling.

Researchers from the UK have found out how many years later global cooling will be recorded on our planet. ...Scientists note that cold weather will come to Earth in 10-15 years: the activity of the star will slow down significantly, which is why progressive global warming will be replaced by cooling, FAN reports.

A new global cooling may begin on Earth in 10-15 years. ...According to researchers, its activity will decrease significantly, as a result of which progressive global warming will be replaced by cooling.

Global cooling will occur on Earth in 10-15 years. Scientists from Great Britain came to this conclusion.

British scientists from Northumbria University modeled solar activity cycles and came to the conclusion that in 10-15 years, earthlings will face not global warming, but global cooling, RT reports. According to experimental data, previously the Earth and the Sun gradually moved closer together, but now the distance between them is increasing, which is why our planet is facing a new ice age.

According to scientists, a new global cooling could begin on Earth in 10-15 years. ...According to research data, activity on the Sun will soon decrease sharply.

British experts have come to the conclusion that within 10-15 years a new global cooling will occur on our planet. Scientists made their conclusions based on a mathematical model of the processes that are occurring on the Sun today.

Scientists have decided that in 10-15 years the process of global warming will be replaced by global cooling. Experts from Northumbria University in the UK made this conclusion based on an analysis of solar activity cycles.

At the moment, global warming can be noted, but in ten years it will change in the opposite direction - towards cold. This prediction was made thanks to a mathematical model built on various processes occurring on the surface and inside the Sun.

British climatologists claim that in ten years, due to global warming, a new ice age will begin on Earth, reports replyua.net. ...Scientists note that in the coming years, solar activity will begin to decline sharply, and global warming will be replaced by even more widespread cooling.

Over the coming decades, global cooling will come to Earth, scientists from the UK said. They found this out by summing up the results of their study of the processes occurring on the Sun.

Its activity will decrease significantly, as a result of which progressive global warming will be replaced by cooling, experts say. ...The fact is that in recent years, significantly fewer spots have appeared on the luminary than previously, which, according to researchers, is a harbinger of a mini-ice age.

That same notorious nuclear winter has become a very common concept describing the expected effect of global cooling. Black smoke and ash from cities destroyed by nuclear strikes will rise into the atmosphere and block access to sunlight.

Scientists simulated the 25th and 26th cycles of solar activity. ...In this regard, experts concluded that during the 26th cycle, processes in the bowels of the star neutralize each other, which will lead to a sharp drop in solar activity.

British scientists predict an imminent global cooling that will cover the Earth in 10-15 years. ...Scientists said that the distance between the Earth and the Sun is constantly changing.

In particular, the researchers prepared their forecast based on mathematical modeling of processes occurring on the Sun. ...Thus, short-term cold snaps and severe winters that we are experiencing do not at all contradict the warming trend.

Scientists from the British University of Northumbria reported that global cooling will occur in 10-15 years. ...Northumbria University expert Valentina Zharkova and her colleagues modeled the 25th and 26th cycles of solar activity.

Scientists from Britain analyzed solar activity and came to the conclusion that the Earth is facing global cooling in 10-15 years. The fact is that the distance between the Sun and the Earth is constantly changing and now the distance is increasing, which will lead to cooling.

British scientists from Northumbria University modeled solar activity cycles and came to the conclusion that global cooling will occur on Earth in 10 to 15 years. According to them, the peaks of decline in solar activity will occur in 2022 and 2040.

Global warming or cooling? Contrary to forecasts, the area of ​​Arctic glaciers is not decreasing, but increasing. IN different countries abnormally low temperatures are recorded around the world. Is a new “ice age” awaiting the earth?

Photos that should shock the world: snapshots of Arctic white cover observations. The forecasts of most climate scientists in the world have not come true. On Earth, instead of global warming, global cooling is possible.

The area of ​​Arctic glaciers has not decreased over the past 12 months alone, but has increased by 60 percent. This news is being discussed this week by experts from the UN intergovernmental group. And a few days before the start of the discussion in Stockholm, they started talking about this in the European Parliament. One of the famous British politicians, member of the European Parliament from the Independent Party of Great Britain Nigel Farage, could hardly contain his emotions.

“Global climate change was an absolute priority in science for you,” he noted. “You almost hysterically declared global warming and taking measures to combat it. You ridiculed those who were skeptical about this. But, nevertheless, less, tens of millions of citizens were forced to live in conditions of fuel economy. Look how the manufacturing industry has suffered, which has undergone systematic cuts. It’s time for us to stop this absurdity. There are photographs from NASA. It is clear that the ice cover has more than doubled. that we made the stupidest collective mistake of believing in the talk about global warming.”

So what should humanity still expect - warming or cooling? The dispute is getting hotter. Russian scientists adhere to the concept of global cooling. In one of the oldest observatories in the world - Pulkovo (in St. Petersburg) - they have been observing the main celestial star for many years. Russian scientists associate the increase in ice area on Earth with the activity of the Sun. The sun, scientists say, is becoming dimmer every year.

“Solar activity affects the climate on Earth,” confirms Vladimir Obridko, head of the Department of Physics of Solar-Terrestrial Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences. “And, indeed, we are now seeing some indicators that the main characteristics of solar activity are gradually decreasing somewhat, and the trend is towards a decrease in the warming influence of solar activity. The photometric size of the Sun decreases somewhat, and the luminosity decreases."

The global warming that scientists had talked about before was mainly based on computer forecasts, that is, scientists tried to model the behavior of nature. What is now being recorded in the Arctic forces us to change approaches to climate monitoring. Now we have to analyze long-term weather observations.

The Earth has already experienced global cooling many thousands of years ago. The so-called “ice age”, which even powerful mammoths could not resist. But scientists, of course, rule out a repetition of such events in the near future. But lowering temperatures even by a few degrees can greatly change the situation on the entire planet.

Of course, humanity will not have to hide in caves and make fire again. But scientists do not rule out the emergence of so-called “explosive winters” - seasons with sharp and unexpected cold temperatures. There is already evidence of this: snow falls in the off-season in different parts of the planet. The coming winter in our country will not be characterized by abnormal indicators. According to astrophysicists, a sharp drop in temperature will begin next season.

“According to our calculations, literally next year there will be a slow decrease, the beginning of a decrease in temperature, since the power of solar radiation has been decreasing since 1991 and will reach a minimum radiation approximately in 2043 plus or minus 11 years,” said Khabibullo Abdusamatov, head of the solar space research sector at the Pulkovo Observatory.

In new forecasts, the temperature on the planet will drop to a minimum in 2060. However, the theory of global cooling, like that of warming, is just a hypothesis. Scientists will have to carefully monitor the behavior of the Sun in the next decade, because the power of its radiation began to be studied only in the early 80s - a period too short for accurate conclusions.

Global warming will be replaced by cooling in just five years, says Nikolai Zavalishin, head of the department of hydrometeorology and ecology of the Siberian Regional Research Hydrometeorological Institute (SibNIGMI).

According to the scientist, by 2022 the average air temperature in the world will increase by another 1.1 degrees. “After this there will be a gradual decline, no matter how much people burn hydrocarbons,” TASS quotes him as saying.

And people are not to blame

In general, Zavalishin, unlike many colleagues, does not connect global warming with the anthropogenic factor. In his opinion, this phenomenon is of a natural nature. It is caused by a decrease in the Earth's albedo - the percentage of solar energy reflected into space.

Periods of increase and decrease in temperature on the Blue Planet have happened before, the scientist recalled, they are of a recurring nature. According to him, each cycle consists of 10 years of rapid warming and 40-50 years of slow “cooling.”

Zavalishin also drew attention to the fact that 2015–2016 were the warmest years in Russia in the long-term history of meteorological observations. The Arctic is “warming” especially intensively: in the summer of 2016, the minimum area of ​​ice cover was noted. But, according to the weather forecaster, we should not expect large-scale melting of glaciers.

Aleksey Kokorin, head of the Climate and Energy program at WWF, partly agrees with him. Indeed, the previous two years were very hot not only in Russia, but throughout the world, he notes. Temperatures were almost one degree above the levels of the early and mid-20th century.

The expert attributes this to the influence of the climate phenomenon El Niño (Spanish El Niño - “baby, boy”), which gave approximately 0.15−0.18 additional degrees. Now the capricious natural “child” is retreating. “2017-2018 in the world as a whole will be colder than 2016,” the expert predicts.

Before El Niño came into play, global warming was somewhere between 0.8 and 0.82 degrees. And, if we extend this trend, an increase of 1.1 degrees by 2022 seems quite reasonable to the expert. But he does not agree that the cooling will become quite prolonged, and still considers the anthropogenic factor to be the main culprit of long-term climate change.

Ice Age is canceled

“Indeed, there are calculations based on solar cycles, according to which there will be a minimum somewhere in the 30s, maybe 40s. And global temperatures could drop by about 0.25 degrees. However, if we take the second assessment report of the Russian Federation (this is a very thorough work), then this decrease will be a temporary phenomenon. This does not mean that the cooling will last forever. Let’s say, the temperature will be lower for a couple of decades, and then it will rise again,” explains Kokorin.

In general, it is not very clear about which natural cycles we're talking about, the scientist notes. There are quite a lot of the same solar cycles: the well-known eleven-year, as well as forty-five and sixty-year, plus centennial quasi-cycles and others.

“If all these cycles overlap, we will have what they like to call the Little Ice Age in Europe. When Peter I went to Holland, everyone there skated on the canals because they were covered with ice. This is also possible. Another thing is that solar experts do not predict this for the 21st century,” says the climatologist.

In addition to the solar ones, there are also ocean cycles, and also separate ones - the Atlantic Ocean, the Pacific Ocean, the same El Niño, the five-year cycle in the Arctic. Powerful volcanic eruptions also have a significant impact on the climate. When their emissions are introduced into the atmosphere, cooling immediately occurs for a fairly long period (up to decades), far exceeding the consequences of human activity.

But all these natural phenomena and the cycles are local in nature, end sooner or later, and also cancel each other out, while the human factor acts constantly, gradually increasing the greenhouse effect.

The Age of Global Warming

“It turns out that the anthropogenic trend, on average for the 21st century, makes the main component. Precisely because the sun is here and there. And this is a continuous trend, albeit a small one,” notes Kokorin.

He explains that more than 90% of the climate system's energy comes from the ocean. Over the past 30-40 years, the upper layer of all oceans, including the Arctic, has been warming up. Due to this, water expands, ice melts, and the level of the World Ocean rises. And this is due to a slight increase in the greenhouse effect. More heat that comes from the Earth is retained.

“At the same time, there are a lot of variations, a lot of everything in the changeable and fast atmosphere: this way, now that, the Sun influenced, then volcanoes erupted. It's like a dog's tail. But no matter how the tail spins - now in the cold, now in the heat - the main body, the carcass, warms up. Therefore, there is no doubt that the 21st century is the century of global warming, despite the fact that a variety of things can happen in the atmosphere, but more short-term ones,” the scientist concludes.

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